China’s electric vehicle and climate ambitions jeopardized by surging critical material prices

Wang, Hetong; Feng, Kuishuang; Wang, Peng; Yang, Yuyao; Sun, Laixiang; Yang, Fan; Chen, Wei-Qiang; Zhang, Yiyi; Li, Jiashuo

Abstract

The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) on a large scale is crucial for meeting the desired climate commitments, where affordability plays a vital role. However, the expected surge in prices of lithium, cobalt, nickel, and manganese, four critical materials in EV batteries, could hinder EV uptake. To explore these impacts in the context of China, the world’s largest EV market, we expand and enrich an integrated assessment model. We find that under a high material cost surge scenario, EVs would account for 35% (2030) and 51% (2060) of the total number of vehicles in China, significantly lower than 49% (2030) and 67% (2060) share in the base-line, leading to a 28% increase in cumulative carbon emissions (2020-2060) from road transportation. While material recycling and technical battery innovation are effective long-term countermeasures, securing the supply chains of critical materials through international cooperation is highly recommended, given geopolitical and environmental fragilities.

Citation

Wang, H., Feng, K., Wang, P., Yang, Y., Sun, L., Yang, F., Chen, W.-Q., Zhang, Y., & Li, J. (2023). China’s electric vehicle and climate ambitions jeopardized by surging critical material prices. Nature Communications, 14(1), 1246. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-36957-4

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Feb 27, 2023
• Online Publication Date: Mar 4, 2023
• Publication Date: Mar 4, 2023
• Deposit Date: Mar 6, 2023
• Publicly Available Date: Mar 6, 2023
• Journal: Nature Communications
• Electronic ISSN: 2041-1723
• Publisher: Nature Research
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 14
• Issue: 1
• Pages: 1246
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-36957-4
• Publisher URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-36957-4
• Additional Information: Data Access Statement : The data generated in this study are provided in Supplementary Information