Strongmen or Technocrats: Experimental Evidence Testing Leadership Preferences in Afghanistan

Bhatia, Jasmine

Abstract

Political leadership in fragile states is often comprised of a combination of informal power brokers and
technocratic elites. However, few studies to date have sought to quantify how these political orders correspond
to public leadership preferences or which typologies of leadership are most conducive to consolidating state
legitimacy. This paper uses experimental conjoint analysis to estimate leadership preferences in three provinces
in northern Afghanistan. Contrary to what is widely assumed, the findings suggest that Afghans living in
this region prefer leaders who are younger, highly educated, and who share the same ethnicity, while older
leaders with religious education are penalized. These preferences hold across different age and income groups.
Experimental treatments testing the effect of exposure to insecurity and corruption on leadership preferences
had trivial effects on these preferences.

Citation

Bhatia, J. Strongmen or Technocrats: Experimental Evidence Testing Leadership Preferences in Afghanistan

• Report Type: Technical Report
• Online Publication Date: Jul 29, 2017
• Deposit Date: Aug 15, 2019
• Publicly Available Date: Aug 15, 2019
• Pages: 1-20
• Publisher URL: https://www.theigc.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Bhatia-2017-Final-report-1.pdf
• Additional Information: Additional Information : Ref no: S-89329-AFG-1