Cross-border Risks of a Global Economy in Mid-Transition

Espagne, Etienne; Oman, William; Mercure, Jean-François; Svartzman, Romain; Volz, Ulrich; Pollitt, Hector; Semieniuk, Gregor; Campiglio, Emanuele

Abstract

This paper analyzes the cross-border risks that could result from a decarbonization of the world economy. We develop a typology of cross-border risks and their respective channels. Our qualitative and quantitative scenario analysis suggests that the mid-transition – a period during which fossil-fuel and lowcarbon energy systems co-exist and transform at a rapid pace – could have profound stability and resilience implications for global trade and the international financial system.

Citation

Espagne, E., Oman, W., Mercure, J.-F., Svartzman, R., Volz, U., Pollitt, H., Semieniuk, G., & Campiglio, E. Cross-border Risks of a Global Economy in Mid-Transition. Washington, DC

• Working Paper Type: Working Paper
• Deposit Date: Apr 15, 2024
• Publicly Available Date: Apr 15, 2024
• Pages: 1-57
• Keywords: Climate change; transition risks; cross-border risks; trade;; international money and finance
• Publisher URL: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2023/09/08/Cross-Border-Risks-of-a-Global-Economy-in-Mid-Transition-538950