Econometric Studies of Business Cycles in the History of Econometrics

Qin, Duo

Abstract

This study examines the evolution of econometric research in business cycle analysis during the 1960-90 period. It shows how the research was dominated by an assimilation of the tradition of NBER business cycle analysis by the Haavelmo-Cowles Commission approach, catalysed by time-series statistical methods. Methodological consequences of the assimilation are critically evaluated in light of the meagre achievement of the research in predicting the current global recession.

Citation

Qin, D. Econometric Studies of Business Cycles in the History of Econometrics

• Working Paper Type: Working Paper
• Deposit Date: Sep 9, 2011
• Publisher URL: http://www.econ.qmul.ac.uk/papers/wp/WP669.HTM