Outputs (111)

Rescuing Econometrics: From the Probability Approach to Probably Approximately Correct Learning (2024)
Book
Qin, D. (2024). Rescuing Econometrics: From the Probability Approach to Probably Approximately Correct Learning. Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003450788

Haavelmo’s 1944 monograph, The Probability Approach in Econometrics, is widely acclaimed as the manifesto of econometrics. This book challenges Haavelmo’s probability approach, shows how its use is delivering defective and inefficient results, and ar... Read More about Rescuing Econometrics: From the Probability Approach to Probably Approximately Correct Learning.

Algorithmic Modelling of Financial Conditions for Macro Predictive Purposes: Pilot Application to USA Data (2022)
Journal Article
Qin, D., van Huellen, S., Wang, Q. C., & Moraitis, T. (2022). Algorithmic Modelling of Financial Conditions for Macro Predictive Purposes: Pilot Application to USA Data. Econometrics, 10(2), Article e22. https://doi.org/10.3390/econometrics10020022

Aggregate financial conditions indices (FCIs) are constructed to fulfil two aims: (i) The FCIs should resemble non-model-based composite indices in that their composition is adequately invariant for concatenation during regular updates; (ii) the conc... Read More about Algorithmic Modelling of Financial Conditions for Macro Predictive Purposes: Pilot Application to USA Data.

Modelling Opportunity Cost Effects in Money Demand due to Openness (2020)
Journal Article
van Huellen, S., Qin, D., Lu, S., Wang, H., Wang, Q. C., & Moraitis, T. (2022). Modelling Opportunity Cost Effects in Money Demand due to Openness. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 27(1), 697-744. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2175

We apply a novel model-based approach to constructing composite international financial indices (CIFIs) as measures of opportunity cost effects that arise due to openness in money demand models. These indices are tested on the People’s Republic of Ch... Read More about Modelling Opportunity Cost Effects in Money Demand due to Openness.

Compulsory Schooling and Returns to Education: A Re-Examination (2019)
Journal Article
van Huellen, S., & Qin, D. (2019). Compulsory Schooling and Returns to Education: A Re-Examination. Econometrics, 7(3), 36. https://doi.org/10.3390/econometrics7030036

This paper re-examines the instrumental variable (IV) approach to estimating returns to education by use of compulsory school law (CSL) in the US. We show that the IV-approach amounts to a change in model specification by changing the causal status o... Read More about Compulsory Schooling and Returns to Education: A Re-Examination.

Modelling Opportunity Cost Effects in Money Demand due to Openness (2019)
Preprint / Working Paper
van Huellen, S., Qin, D., Lu, S., Wang, H., Wang, Q. C., & Moraitis, T. Modelling Opportunity Cost Effects in Money Demand due to Openness. London

A Principled Approach to Assessing Missing-Wage Induced Selection Bias (2019)
Preprint / Working Paper
Qin, D., van Huellen, S., Elshafie, R., Liu, Y., & Moraitis, T. A Principled Approach to Assessing Missing-Wage Induced Selection Bias. Working Paper Series, No. 216

Let's take the bias out of econometrics (2018)
Journal Article
Qin, D. (2018). Let's take the bias out of econometrics. Journal of Economic Methodology, 26(2), 81-98. https://doi.org/10.1080/1350178X.2018.1547415

This study exposes the cognitive flaws of ‘endogeneity bias’. It examines how conceptualisation of the bias has evolved to embrace all major econometric problems, despite extensive lack of hard evidence. It reveals the crux of the bias – a priori rej... Read More about Let's take the bias out of econometrics.

Predictive Macro-Impacts of PLS-based Financial Conditions Indices: An Application to the USA (2016)
Preprint / Working Paper
Qin, D., & Wang, Q. C. Predictive Macro-Impacts of PLS-based Financial Conditions Indices: An Application to the USA. London

This investigation seeks to construct financial conditions indices (FCIs) by the partial least squares (PLS) method with the aims (i) that the FCIs should outperform interest rate, which is conventionally used in small VAR (Vector Auto-Regression) mo... Read More about Predictive Macro-Impacts of PLS-based Financial Conditions Indices: An Application to the USA.

Predictive Macro-Impacts of PLS-based Financial Conditions Indices: An Application to the USA (2016)
Preprint / Working Paper
Qin, D., & Wang, Q. C. Predictive Macro-Impacts of PLS-based Financial Conditions Indices: An Application to the USA. London

This investigation seeks to construct financial conditions indices (FCIs) by the partial least squares (PLS) method with the aims (i) that the FCIs should outperform interest rate, which is conventionally used in small VAR (Vector Auto-Regression) mo... Read More about Predictive Macro-Impacts of PLS-based Financial Conditions Indices: An Application to the USA.

Compulsory Schooling and the Returns to Education: A Reexamination (2016)
Preprint / Working Paper
van Huellen, S., & Qin, D. Compulsory Schooling and the Returns to Education: A Reexamination

We re-examine the effect of compulsory school law on education in the US pioneered by Angrist and Krueger (1991). We show that the standard instrumental variable approach of the education variable not only yields empirically inconsistent estimates, b... Read More about Compulsory Schooling and the Returns to Education: A Reexamination.