An Exploration of the Association Between Fuel Subsidies and Fuel Riots

McCulloch, Neil; Natalini, Davide; Hossain, Naomi; Justino, Patricia

Abstract

Between 2005 and 2018, 41 countries had at least one riot directly associated with popular demand for fuel. We make use of a new international dataset on fuel riots to explore the effects of fuel prices and price regimes on fuel riots. In line with prior expectations, we find that large domestic fuel price shocks - often linked to international price shocks - are a key driver of riots. In addition, we report a novel result: fuel riots are closely associated with domestic price regimes. Countries that maintain fixed price regimes - notably net energy exporters - tend to have large fuel subsidies. When such subsidies become unsustainable, domestic price adjustments are large, often leading to riots.

Citation

McCulloch, N., Natalini, D., Hossain, N., & Justino, P. (2022). An Exploration of the Association Between Fuel Subsidies and Fuel Riots. World Development, 157, Article 105935. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2022.105935

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Apr 25, 2022
• Publication Date: Sep 1, 2022
• Deposit Date: Oct 12, 2023
• Publicly Available Date: Oct 12, 2023
• Journal: World Development
• Print ISSN: 0305-750X
• Electronic ISSN: 1873-5991
• Publisher: Elsevier
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 157
• Article Number: 105935
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2022.105935
• Keywords: Fuel subsidies, Fuel riots, Protests, Conflict, Price regimes, Energy
• Publisher URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X22001255
• Related Public URLs: https://opendocs.ids.ac.uk/opendocs/handle/20.500.12413/16867
• Additional Information: Data Access Statement : The authors declare that the data supporting the findings of this study are available within the paper and its supplementary information files.