Modelling future safe and just operating spaces in regional social-ecological systems

Cooper, Gregory S.; Dearing, John A.

Abstract

Shaping social-ecological systems towards sustainable, desirable and equitable futures is often hampered by complex human-natural feedbacks, emergence and nonlinearities. Consequently, the future of systems vulnerable to collapse is uncertain under plausible trajectories of environmental change, socioeconomic development and decision-making. We develop a modelling approach that incorporates driver interactions and feedbacks to operationalise future "safe and just operating spaces" for sustainable development. Monte Carlo simulations of fish catch from India's Chilika lagoon are compared to conditions that are ecologically and socioeconomically desirable as per today's norms. Akin to a satellite-navigation system, the model identifies multidimensional pathways giving at least a 75 chance of achieving the desirable future, whilst simultaneously diverting the system away from undesirable pathways. Critically for regional governance, the driver limits and trade-offs associated with regulating the resource are realised. More widely, this approach represents an adaptable framework that explores the resilience of social-ecological interactions and feedbacks underpinning regional sustainable development.

Citation

Cooper, G. S., & Dearing, J. A. (2019). Modelling future safe and just operating spaces in regional social-ecological systems. Science of the Total Environment, 651(Part 2), 2105-2117. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.118

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Oct 9, 2018
• Online Publication Date: Oct 10, 2018
• Publication Date: Feb 15, 2019
• Deposit Date: Oct 29, 2018
• Publicly Available Date: Oct 29, 2018
• Journal: Science of the Total Environment
• Print ISSN: 0048-9697
• Electronic ISSN: 1879-1026
• Publisher: Elsevier
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 651
• Issue: Part 2
• Pages: 2105-2117
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.118
• Keywords: Chilika lagoon, Natural resource management, Plausible futures, Safe and just operating spaces, Social-ecological modelling
• Related Public URLs: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969718339974