Climate vulnerability and fertilizer use – panel evidence from Tanzanian Maize farmers

Heisse, Christiane; Morimoto, Risa

Abstract

Chemical fertilizers can significantly improve agricultural productivity but their environmental sustainability is much debated. This paper contributes to a growing body of research on the drivers of chemical fertilizer use under climate vulnerability. We study the impact of climate risk (measured as rainfall abundance, rainfall variability, temperature and temperature shock) on fertilizer use by Tanzanian maize farmers using Probit regression analysis on spatially disaggregated agronomic panel survey data for the years 2016 and 2017. Our results show that fertilizer use is extremely sensitive to climate risks, even when accounting for actually observed input prices, the main contribution of this study. Our findings suggest that as the climate crisis escalates with erratic rainfalls and warmer climate, chemical fertilizers will become increasingly less reliable to ensure food security for a growing population as farmers’ fertilizer adoption decision is highly responsive to climate variability. This lends support to arguments that perfunctory promotion of chemical fertilizers is at odds with sustainable intensification agricultural policies.

Citation

Heisse, C., & Morimoto, R. (2024). Climate vulnerability and fertilizer use – panel evidence from Tanzanian Maize farmers. Climate and Development, 16(3), 242-254. https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2023.2206373

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Apr 22, 2023
• Online Publication Date: May 23, 2023
• Publication Date: May 1, 2024
• Deposit Date: May 5, 2023
• Publicly Available Date: Jun 3, 2023
• Journal: Climate and Development
• Print ISSN: 1756-5529
• Electronic ISSN: 1756-5537
• Publisher: Taylor and Francis Group
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 16
• Issue: 3
• Pages: 242-254
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2023.2206373
• Keywords: Technology adoption; Tanzania; maize farmers; sustainable intensification; climate change; fertilizers
• Publisher URL: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17565529.2023.2206373