Skip to main content

Research Repository

Advanced Search

International trade, dietary change, and cardiovascular disease health outcomes: Import tariff reform using an integrated macroeconomic, environmental and health modelling framework for Thailand

Jensen, Henning Tarp; Keogh-Brown, Marcus R.; Shankar, Bhavani; Aekplakorn, Wichai; Basu, Sanjay; Cuevas, Soledad; Dangour, Alan D.; Gheewala, Shabbir H.; Green, Rosemary; Joy, Edward JM; Rojroongwasinkul, Nipa; Thaiprasert, Nalitra; Smith, Richard D.

International trade, dietary change, and cardiovascular disease health outcomes: Import tariff reform using an integrated macroeconomic, environmental and health modelling framework for Thailand Thumbnail


Authors

Henning Tarp Jensen

Marcus R. Keogh-Brown

Wichai Aekplakorn

Sanjay Basu

Soledad Cuevas

Alan D. Dangour

Shabbir H. Gheewala

Rosemary Green

Edward JM Joy

Nipa Rojroongwasinkul

Nalitra Thaiprasert

Richard D. Smith



Abstract

United Nations (UN) member states have, since 2011, worked to address the emerging global NCD crisis, but progress has, so far, been insufficient. Food trade policy is recognised to have the potential to impact certain major diet-related health and environmental outcomes. We study the potential for using import tariff protection as a health and environmental policy instrument. Specifically, we apply a rigorous and consistent Macroeconomic-Environmental-Demographic-health (MED-health) simulation model framework to study fiscal food policy import tariffs and dietary change in Thailand over the future 20 year period 2016-2035. We find that the existing Thai tariff structure, by lowering imports, lowers agricultural Land Use Change (LUC)-related GHG emissions and protects against cholesterol-related cardiovascular disease (CVD). This confirms previous evidence that food trade, measured by import shares of food expenditures and caloric intakes, is correlated with unhealthy eating and adverse health outcomes among importing country populations. A continued drive towards tariff liberalization and economic efficiency in Thailand may therefore come at the expense of reduced health and environmental sustainability of food consumption and production systems. Due to large efficiency losses, the existing tariff structure is, however, not cost-effective as an environmental or health policy instrument. However, additional simulations confirm that stylized 30% food sector import tariffs generally improve nutritional, clinical health, demographic, and environmental indicators across the board. We also find that diet-related health improvements can go hand-in-hand with increased Saturated Fatty Acid (SFA) intakes. Despite limited cost-effectiveness, policy makers from Thailand and abroad, including WHO, would therefore be well advised to consider targeted fiscal food policy tariffs as a potential intervention to maintain combined health and environmental sustainability, and to reconsider the specification of WHO dietary guidelines with their focus on SFA intake (rather than composition of fatty acid intake) targets.

Citation

Jensen, H. T., Keogh-Brown, M. R., Shankar, B., Aekplakorn, W., Basu, S., Cuevas, S., Dangour, A. D., Gheewala, S. H., Green, R., Joy, E. J., Rojroongwasinkul, N., Thaiprasert, N., & Smith, R. D. (2019). International trade, dietary change, and cardiovascular disease health outcomes: Import tariff reform using an integrated macroeconomic, environmental and health modelling framework for Thailand. SSM - Population Health, 9, Article 100435. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssmph.2019.100435

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Jun 12, 2019
Online Publication Date Jan 31, 2019
Publication Date Dec 1, 2019
Deposit Date Aug 7, 2019
Publicly Available Date Aug 7, 2019
Journal SSM - Population Health
Electronic ISSN 2352-8273
Publisher Elsevier
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 9
Article Number 100435
DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssmph.2019.100435
Publisher URL https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssmph.2019.100435

Files






You might also like



Downloadable Citations