The Recurring Conflicts between South Korea and Japan: Interplay of Institutional Path Dependence and Actors’ Beliefs

Kwak, Kilhee

Abstract

The recurring conflicts between South Korea and Japan, particularly over historical issues, despite having various reasons to cooperate, have long been a puzzle. This paper employs the historical institutionalism theory and appended concept path dependence to argue that the institutional stickiness of the 1965 normalization treaty, framed by the president’s set of beliefs, has in turn created a longitudinal institutional restrain on political choices for future Korean presidents towards Japan ever since.
This paper uses the holistic embedded case study, where the pattern of Korea’s adversarial actions towards Japan constitutes the longitudinal case, and the relation between the key actors’ belief system and foreign policy trajectory consists of the sub-case cross-sectional analysis. This combination of longitudinal and cross-sectional analysis clustered into a within case study, designed according to the path dependence approach, has allowed a more precise identification of causes of the recurring conflicts. Among other factors, and unlike previous studies, this study points to the unique interactive mechanism of policymakers and the original institutional framework, illustrating how early institutional choices has locked in and created patterns of conflicts today.
Causality is hypothesized and traced through case study pattern matching method, with both qualitative and quantitative method used for data collection and analysis. Consistent with the historical institutionalism theory and path dependent approach, this paper hypothesizes that longitudinally, the policy options since 1965 reveal a consistent pattern with a notable conversion point, marked by a shift in policy interpretation. At the same time, the cross-sectional analyses reveal the critical role of presidential belief systems. When presidents hold positive philosophical and strategic beliefs about Japan, they tend to preserve the international status quo; in contrast, when their beliefs are negative, they interpret the existing institutional framework to heighten the salience of historical disputes, thereby contribute to policy conversion within a stable institutional structure.

Citation

Kwak, K. The Recurring Conflicts between South Korea and Japan: Interplay of Institutional Path Dependence and Actors’ Beliefs. (Thesis). SOAS University of London

• Thesis Type: Thesis
• Deposit Date: Aug 12, 2025
• Publicly Available Date: Aug 12, 2025
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.25501/SOAS.00595740
• Additional Information: 254 pages
• Award Date: 2025