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At the Helm (2024)
Digital Artefact
Driver, C., & Kenway, P. (2024). At the Helm

Labour's embrace of active industrial strategy can count on widespread support, including from businesses. But the details may need further thought - and labour interests must be included

South African Manufacturing: The challenge of growth with jobs (2023)
Journal Article
Driver, C. (2024). South African Manufacturing: The challenge of growth with jobs. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 68, 433-445. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2023.10.015

This paper evaluates South African manufacturing performance over 25 years. It reports the evolution of five basic variables: employment, mark-ups, exports, domestic sales, and investment, using an aggregated sample of firms from a reliable business... Read More about South African Manufacturing: The challenge of growth with jobs.

Macroeconomics with Firms and Stockmarkets (2023)
Journal Article
Driver, C. (2023). Macroeconomics with Firms and Stockmarkets. Contributions to Political Economy, 42(1), 117-127. https://doi.org/10.1093/cpe/bzad018

Empirical work on stock market data, coupled with behavioural findings on corporate decision-making, have produced a set of challenges for orthodox macroeconomics. This paper critically considers the work of Andrew Smithers and related contributions,... Read More about Macroeconomics with Firms and Stockmarkets.

Dividends Policy and Payouts: Evidence from South Africa (2023)
Preprint / Working Paper
Driver, C., Grosman, A., Scaramozzino, P., & Lesame, K. Dividends Policy and Payouts: Evidence from South Africa. Pretoria

The theoretical framework that informs dividend studies is somewhat loose. This makes it difficult to test competing views on dividend behaviour. One view is that it reflects a useful discipline on managerial autonomy to invest; another view is that... Read More about Dividends Policy and Payouts: Evidence from South Africa.

Why Starmer can't be Blair (2022)
Journal Article
Driver, C. (2022). Why Starmer can't be Blair. Fabian review, 134(4), 15-16

This article demonstrates that the economic policy environment has changed dramatically since the Blair years. Under the headings macroeconomy; markets vs planning; capital and broad investment; stakeholder voice, the changes that have occurred are d... Read More about Why Starmer can't be Blair.

Differing behaviours of forecasters of UK GDP growth (2022)
Journal Article
Meade, N., & Driver, C. (2023). Differing behaviours of forecasters of UK GDP growth. International Journal of Forecasting, 39(2), 772-790. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2022.02.005

The literature suggests that the dispersion of agents’ forecasts of an event flows from heterogeneity of beliefs and models. Using a data set of fixed event point forecasts of UK GDP growth by a panel of independent forecasters published by HM Treasu... Read More about Differing behaviours of forecasters of UK GDP growth.

Investment in South Africa (2021)
Book Chapter
Driver, C., & Harris, L. Investment in South Africa. In A. Oqubay, F. Tregenna, & I. Valodia (Eds.), The Oxford Handbook of the South African Economy (441-466). Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780192894199.013.41

Abstract: Since the achievement of democracy, high levels of gross fixed capital formation have been required for the economic and social transformation of South Africa. Public-sector investment has risen, particularly since 2008, but private-busines... Read More about Investment in South Africa.

Broadening the ambit of industrial strategy to include latent demand and corporate governance (2021)
Book Chapter
Driver, C. (2021). Broadening the ambit of industrial strategy to include latent demand and corporate governance. In C. Berry, J. Froud, & T. Barker (Eds.), The Political Economy of Industrial Strategy in the UK (149-160). Agenda Publishing. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv1mvw8s5.18

•Markets are more suited to reacting to incremental demand change than to implementing entirely new sets of opportunities. This is not only because markets are often short-termist or rent-seeking, but also because major innovative change implies ex... Read More about Broadening the ambit of industrial strategy to include latent demand and corporate governance.

A real stake for workers (2020)
Digital Artefact
Driver, C. A real stake for workers

Inclusive ownership funds have been promoted by many on the left as a way of giving employees more say in the way businesses are run. But is there a better means to a fairer end?

How investor pressure leads to higher dividend payouts (2020)
Digital Artefact
Driver, C., Grosman, A., & Scaramozzino, P. How investor pressure leads to higher dividend payouts

The dividends in the UK companies have been on the rise, despite uncertain economic outlook due to COVID-19, pension deficits and irrespective of whether the companies have been making profits. This column analyses the reasons for such a dramatic inc... Read More about How investor pressure leads to higher dividend payouts.

Leverage, uncertainty and investment decisions (2020)
Journal Article
Kenc, T., & Driver, C. (2020). Leverage, uncertainty and investment decisions. Economics Letters, 190, Article 109052. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109052

We explore the role of taxes on stimulating investment decisions for levered firms under cash flows and investment costs uncertainty using the adjusted present value-based real options approach developed by Myers and Read (2019). We extend their work... Read More about Leverage, uncertainty and investment decisions.

Dividend Policy and Investor Pressure (2019)
Journal Article
Driver, C., Grosman, A., & Scaramozzino, P. (2020). Dividend Policy and Investor Pressure. Economic Modelling, 89, 559-576. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2019.11.016

The economics of dividend policy has focused on the single tight narrative that dividends keep managers honest, mitigating concerns that they over-invest. This article provides a critique of that agency narrative, arguing that pressure from short-ter... Read More about Dividend Policy and Investor Pressure.

Enhancing survey‐based investment forecasts (2018)
Journal Article
Driver, C., & Meade, N. (2019). Enhancing survey‐based investment forecasts. Journal of Forecasting, 38(3), 236-255. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2567

We investigate the accuracy of capital investment predictors from a national business survey of South African manufacturing. Based on data available to correspondents at the time of survey completion, we propose variables that might affect the stabil... Read More about Enhancing survey‐based investment forecasts.

Financial Constraints on Investment: Effects of Firm Size and the Financial Crisis (2018)
Journal Article
Driver, C., & Muñoz-Bugarin, J. (2019). Financial Constraints on Investment: Effects of Firm Size and the Financial Crisis. Research in International Business and Finance, 47, 441-457. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2018.09.006

We estimate the effect of external financial constraints on fixed investment intentions for UK manufacturing by size of firm distinguishing between normal effects and those since the financial crisis began in the UK in 2007. Our financial constraints... Read More about Financial Constraints on Investment: Effects of Firm Size and the Financial Crisis.

Corporate Governance in Contention (2018)
Book
Driver, C., & Thompson, G. (Eds.). (2018). Corporate Governance in Contention. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198805274.001.0001

Corporate governance is a complex idea that is often inappropriately simplified as a cookbook of recommended measures to improve financial performance. Meta studies of published research show that the supposed benign effects of these measures - indep... Read More about Corporate Governance in Contention.

Fixing the Corporation: a Management or a Governance issue? (2018)
Book Chapter
Driver, C. (2018). Fixing the Corporation: a Management or a Governance issue?. In C. Driver, & G. Thompson (Eds.), Corporate Governance in Contention (239-260). Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198805274.003.0011

In this chapter I first review the current state of play in corporate governance debates, highlighting challenges to the dominant agency view. Following a critique of the economic reasoning supporting shareholder primacy I consider two contrasting ap... Read More about Fixing the Corporation: a Management or a Governance issue?.

Corporate Governance and Why it Matters (2018)
Book Chapter
Driver, C., & Thompson, G. (2018). Corporate Governance and Why it Matters. In C. Driver, & G. Thompson (Eds.), Corporate Governance in Contention (1-24). Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198805274.003.0001

This chapter introduces the idea of governance and proceeds to a structured discussion of what corporate governance means and why it matters. The discussion is divided into three themes: the first deals with enterprise—long-run commitments that firms... Read More about Corporate Governance and Why it Matters.