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Strategy, Secrecy, and External Support for Insurgent Groups

Paliwal, Avinash; Staniland, Paul

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Authors

Paul Staniland



Abstract

States support transnational insurgents in an important variety of ways, from highly public efforts to transform the status quo to covert backing with limited ambitions. In this paper, we introduce a new theory to help explain variation in these strategies of external support. We argue that the offensive or defensive goals of state sponsors interact with their fears of escalation to shape how they support armed groups. Four strategies of state sponsorship emerge from different combinations of sponsor goals and escalation fears. We empirically investigate this argument with a unique medium-N study of Indian support and nonsupport for insurgents in South Asia. Based on fieldwork, primary sources, and specialized secondary literature, we uncover a rich landscape of links between India and armed groups in its neighborhood. We show a systematic connection between the strategies of support that India chooses with its aims in supporting rebels and its fears of escalation from doing so. However, there are mispredictions between our theory and empirical reality that we use in the conclusion to suggest new directions for research.

Citation

Paliwal, A., & Staniland, P. (2023). Strategy, Secrecy, and External Support for Insurgent Groups. International Studies Quarterly, 67(1), Article sqad001. https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqad001

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Sep 14, 2022
Online Publication Date Feb 9, 2023
Publication Date Feb 9, 2023
Deposit Date Oct 7, 2022
Publicly Available Date Oct 7, 2022
Journal International Studies Quarterly
Print ISSN 0020-8833
Electronic ISSN 1468-2478
Publisher Oxford University Press
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 67
Issue 1
Article Number sqad001
DOI https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqad001
Publisher URL https://academic.oup.com/isq/article-abstract/67/1/sqad001/7032856

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Strategy, Secrecy, and External Support for Insurgent Groups, Paliwal & Staniland.pdf (799 Kb)
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Copyright Statement
This is a pre-copyedited, author-produced version of an article accepted for publication in International Studies Quarterly following peer review. The version of record is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqad001. Re-use is subject to the publisher’s terms and conditions





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