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Prehistoric pathways to Anthropocene adaptation: Evidence from the Red River Delta, Vietnam

Rabett, Ryan J.; Morimoto, Risa; Kahlert, Thorsten; Stimpson, Christopher M.; O’Donnell, Shawn; Mai Huong, Nguyen Thi; Manh, Bui Van; Holmes, Rachael; Khánh, Phạm Sinh; Van, Tran Tan; Coward, Fiona

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Authors

Ryan J. Rabett

Thorsten Kahlert

Christopher M. Stimpson

Shawn O’Donnell

Nguyen Thi Mai Huong

Bui Van Manh

Rachael Holmes

Phạm Sinh Khánh

Tran Tan Van

Fiona Coward



Contributors

Lalit Kumar Sharma
Editor

Abstract

Over the past twenty years, government advisory bodies have placed increasing emphasis on the need for adaptive measures in response to the effects of human-induced climate change. Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), which incorporate macroeconomic and climate variables, feature prominently in advisory content, though they rarely draw on data from outside strictly constrained hypothetical systems. This has led to assertions that they are not well-suited to approximate complex systemic human-environment processes. Modular, interdisciplinary approaches have offered a way to address this shortcoming; however, beyond climate records, prehistoric data continue to be under-utilised in developing such models. In this paper we highlight the contribution that archaeology and palaeoecology can make to the development of the next generation IAMs that are expected to enhance provision for more local and pro-active adaptations to future climate change. We present data from one of Southeast Asia’s most heavily developed river deltas: the Red River (Song Hong) Delta, in Vietnam and localised analysis from the Tràng An Landscape Complex World Heritage Site, on the delta’s southern margin. Comparison is made between Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) 5–8.5 and SSP2–4.5 emission projection models and the Mid-Holocene inundation of the Red River Basin. We highlight the value to taking a scientific long view of coastal evolution through an illustrative set of eight research foci where palaeo-data can bring new and localised empirical data to bear on future risk management planning. We proceed to demonstrate the applicability of palaeoenvironmental, zooarchaeological and historical evidence to management and the development of sustainable conservation strategies using Tràng An as a case study. In so doing, we further highlight the importance of knowledge exchange between scientific, corporate, non-governmental, local, and state stakeholders to achieve tangible results on the ground.

Citation

Rabett, R. J., Morimoto, R., Kahlert, T., Stimpson, C. M., O’Donnell, S., Mai Huong, N. T., Manh, B. V., Holmes, R., Khánh, P. S., Van, T. T., & Coward, F. (2023). Prehistoric pathways to Anthropocene adaptation: Evidence from the Red River Delta, Vietnam. PLoS ONE, 18(2), Article e0280126. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0280126

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Dec 20, 2022
Online Publication Date Feb 8, 2023
Publication Date Feb 8, 2023
Deposit Date Feb 13, 2023
Publicly Available Date Feb 13, 2023
Journal PLoS ONE
Electronic ISSN 1932-6203
Publisher Public Library of Science
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 18
Issue 2
Article Number e0280126
DOI https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0280126
Publisher URL https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0280126#sec016
Additional Information Data Access Statement : Sea level reconstruction data for Tràng An during the MidHolocene high stand has been published in Kahlert et al. (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2021. 107001). Sea level rise model comparisons utilised published palaeoenvironmental results, CoastalDEM® courtesy of Climate Central (https:// go.climatecentral.org/coastaldem/). Projected sea levels were obtained via the NASA IPCC AR6 Sea Level Projection Tool (https://sealevel.nasa.gov/ data_tools/17). The topographical base map used in Fig 5 is derived from SRTM 1 Arc Sec DEM,

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