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Rescuing Econometrics: From the Probability Approach to Probably Approximately Correct Learning (2024)
Book
Qin, D. (2024). Rescuing Econometrics: From the Probability Approach to Probably Approximately Correct Learning. Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003450788

Haavelmo’s 1944 monograph, The Probability Approach in Econometrics, is widely acclaimed as the manifesto of econometrics. This book challenges Haavelmo’s probability approach, shows how its use is delivering defective and inefficient results, and ar... Read More about Rescuing Econometrics: From the Probability Approach to Probably Approximately Correct Learning.

Algorithmic Modelling of Financial Conditions for Macro Predictive Purposes: Pilot Application to USA Data (2022)
Journal Article
Qin, D., van Huellen, S., Wang, Q. C., & Moraitis, T. (2022). Algorithmic Modelling of Financial Conditions for Macro Predictive Purposes: Pilot Application to USA Data. Econometrics, 10(2), Article e22. https://doi.org/10.3390/econometrics10020022

Aggregate financial conditions indices (FCIs) are constructed to fulfil two aims: (i) The FCIs should resemble non-model-based composite indices in that their composition is adequately invariant for concatenation during regular updates; (ii) the conc... Read More about Algorithmic Modelling of Financial Conditions for Macro Predictive Purposes: Pilot Application to USA Data.

Modelling Opportunity Cost Effects in Money Demand due to Openness (2020)
Journal Article
van Huellen, S., Qin, D., Lu, S., Wang, H., Wang, Q. C., & Moraitis, T. (2022). Modelling Opportunity Cost Effects in Money Demand due to Openness. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 27(1), 697-744. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2175

We apply a novel model-based approach to constructing composite international financial indices (CIFIs) as measures of opportunity cost effects that arise due to openness in money demand models. These indices are tested on the People’s Republic of Ch... Read More about Modelling Opportunity Cost Effects in Money Demand due to Openness.

Compulsory Schooling and Returns to Education: A Re-Examination (2019)
Journal Article
van Huellen, S., & Qin, D. (2019). Compulsory Schooling and Returns to Education: A Re-Examination. Econometrics, 7(3), 36. https://doi.org/10.3390/econometrics7030036

This paper re-examines the instrumental variable (IV) approach to estimating returns to education by use of compulsory school law (CSL) in the US. We show that the IV-approach amounts to a change in model specification by changing the causal status o... Read More about Compulsory Schooling and Returns to Education: A Re-Examination.

Let's take the bias out of econometrics (2018)
Journal Article
Qin, D. (2018). Let's take the bias out of econometrics. Journal of Economic Methodology, 26(2), 81-98. https://doi.org/10.1080/1350178X.2018.1547415

This study exposes the cognitive flaws of ‘endogeneity bias’. It examines how conceptualisation of the bias has evolved to embrace all major econometric problems, despite extensive lack of hard evidence. It reveals the crux of the bias – a priori rej... Read More about Let's take the bias out of econometrics.

Predictive Macro-Impacts of PLS-based Financial Conditions Indices: An Application to the USA (2016)
Preprint / Working Paper
Qin, D., & Wang, Q. C. Predictive Macro-Impacts of PLS-based Financial Conditions Indices: An Application to the USA. London

This investigation seeks to construct financial conditions indices (FCIs) by the partial least squares (PLS) method with the aims (i) that the FCIs should outperform interest rate, which is conventionally used in small VAR (Vector Auto-Regression) mo... Read More about Predictive Macro-Impacts of PLS-based Financial Conditions Indices: An Application to the USA.

Compulsory Schooling and the Returns to Education: A Reexamination (2016)
Preprint / Working Paper
van Huellen, S., & Qin, D. Compulsory Schooling and the Returns to Education: A Reexamination

We re-examine the effect of compulsory school law on education in the US pioneered by Angrist and Krueger (1991). We show that the standard instrumental variable approach of the education variable not only yields empirically inconsistent estimates, b... Read More about Compulsory Schooling and the Returns to Education: A Reexamination.

How Credible Are Shrinking Wage Elasticities of Married Women Labour Supply? (2016)
Journal Article
Qin, D., van Huellen, S., & Wang, Q. C. (2016). How Credible Are Shrinking Wage Elasticities of Married Women Labour Supply?. Econometrics, 4(1), 1-31. https://doi.org/10.3390/econometrics4010001

This paper delves into the well-known phenomenon of shrinking wage elasticities for married women in the US over recent decades. The results of a novel model experimental approach via sample data ordering unveil considerable heterogeneity across diff... Read More about How Credible Are Shrinking Wage Elasticities of Married Women Labour Supply?.

Time to Demystify Endogeneity Bias (2015)
Preprint / Working Paper
Qin, D. Time to Demystify Endogeneity Bias. London

This study exposes the flaw in defining endogeneity bias by correlation between an explanatory variable and the error term of a regression model. Through dissecting the links which have led to entanglement of measurement errors, simultaneity bias, om... Read More about Time to Demystify Endogeneity Bias.

Resurgence of the Endogeneity-Backed Instrumental Variable Methods (2015)
Journal Article
Qin, D. (2015). Resurgence of the Endogeneity-Backed Instrumental Variable Methods. Economics. Journal articles, 9(2015-7), 1-35. https://doi.org/10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2015-7

This paper investigates the nature of the IV method for tackling endogeneity. By tracing the rise and fall of the method in macroeconometrics and its subsequent revival in microeconometrics, it pins the method down to an implicit model respecificatio... Read More about Resurgence of the Endogeneity-Backed Instrumental Variable Methods.

What Happens to Wage Elasticities When We Strip Playometrics? Revisiting Married Women Labour Supply Model. SOAS Department of Economics Working Paper Series, No. 190. (2015)
Preprint / Working Paper
Qin, D., van Huellen, S., & Wang, Q. C. What Happens to Wage Elasticities When We Strip Playometrics? Revisiting Married Women Labour Supply Model. SOAS Department of Economics Working Paper Series, No. 190. London

This paper sheds new light on the well-known phenomenon of dwindling wage elasticities for married women in the US over the recent decades. Results of a novel model experiment approach via sample data ordering unveil considerable heterogeneity across... Read More about What Happens to Wage Elasticities When We Strip Playometrics? Revisiting Married Women Labour Supply Model. SOAS Department of Economics Working Paper Series, No. 190..

Modelling Scale Effect in Cross-section Data: The Case of Hedonic Price Regression (2015)
Journal Article
Qin, D., & Liu, Y. (2015). Modelling Scale Effect in Cross-section Data: The Case of Hedonic Price Regression. Tongji yanjiu (Beijing.1980), 32(2), 97-103. https://doi.org/10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2015.02.014

An innovative and simple experiment with cross-section data ordering is carried out to exploit a basic feature between many economic variables – nonlinear scale dependence. The experiment is tried on hedonic price models using two data sets for autom... Read More about Modelling Scale Effect in Cross-section Data: The Case of Hedonic Price Regression.

Consolidation of the Haavelmo-Cowles Commission Research Program (2014)
Journal Article
Qin, D. (2015). Consolidation of the Haavelmo-Cowles Commission Research Program. Econometric Theory, 31(2), 275-293. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0266466614000309

Much of modern econometrics stems directly from the post-1940 works of Haavelmo and the Cowles Commission (CC) Monograph 10. This paper examines the consolidation process of the Haavelmo-CC research program mainly during the 1950–70 period from three... Read More about Consolidation of the Haavelmo-Cowles Commission Research Program.

How Much Has Informal Credit Lending Responded to Monetary Policy in China? The Case of Wenzhou (2014)
Journal Article
Qin, D., Xu, Z., & Zhang, X. (2014). How Much Has Informal Credit Lending Responded to Monetary Policy in China? The Case of Wenzhou. Journal of Asian Economics, 31-32, 22-31. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2014.03.001

This study investigates empirically what the major factors are which have driven Wenzhou's informal credit market and how much that market is responsive to monetary policies and the formal banking conditions nationwide. A number of relatively stable... Read More about How Much Has Informal Credit Lending Responded to Monetary Policy in China? The Case of Wenzhou.

Inextricability of Autonomy and Confluence in Econometrics (2014)
Journal Article
Qin, D. (2014). Inextricability of Autonomy and Confluence in Econometrics. Œconomia (En ligne), 4(3), 321-341. https://doi.org/10.4000/oeconomia.883

This paper examines how “confluence” and “autonomy,” two key concepts introduced by Frisch around 1930, have disappeared in econometrics textbooks and why only some fragments of the two have survived mainstream econometrics. It relates the disappeara... Read More about Inextricability of Autonomy and Confluence in Econometrics.

A History of Econometrics: the reformation from the 1970S (2013)
Book
Qin, D. (2013). A History of Econometrics: the reformation from the 1970S. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof%3Aoso/9780199679348.001.0001

This book is a sequel of Qin's previous OUP volume The Formation of Econometrics: A Historical Perspective. That book traces the history roughly during the period 1930-1960. The present book is focused on the reformists’ movements mainly during the 1... Read More about A History of Econometrics: the reformation from the 1970S.

Globalisation Effect on Inflation in the Great Moderation Era: New Evidence from G10 Countries (2013)
Journal Article
Qin, D., & He, X. (2013). Globalisation Effect on Inflation in the Great Moderation Era: New Evidence from G10 Countries. Economics. Journal articles, 7(25), https://doi.org/10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2013-25

The effect of globalisation on inflation is modeled and simulated for ten countries from G10 during the Great Moderation period. The results are supportive of the globalisation hypothesis. In particular, the results show that dynamic channels and mag... Read More about Globalisation Effect on Inflation in the Great Moderation Era: New Evidence from G10 Countries.